⚠ Live Story OTLY stock has declined ~97% from its May 2021 IPO peak of ~$15B market cap to ~$349M as of early 2026. The company has never reported annual net income.
Traced Database/Hype Cycle / Mission Contradiction

Oatly

Oat Milk,
"It's Like Milk But Made For Humans"

Traced Assessment

Oatly's entire consumer proposition was a values transaction: by choosing oat milk over dairy, you were making a meaningful environmental stand against industrial animal agriculture. That proposition drove a cult following, a Starbucks partnership, celebrity investors, and a $10 billion IPO in 2021. Then the ownership structure came into view. Blackstone Group — a private equity firm whose portfolio included investments linked to Amazon deforestation and whose CEO donated to pro-Trump PACs — owned roughly 7% of the company. China Resources, a Chinese state-owned conglomerate, owned approximately 46% — a larger stake, which received far less press coverage. Oatly's defense of the Blackstone relationship was remarkable for its candor: they argued that converting a major PE firm to sustainability investing was itself a climate victory. This defense is the precise inverse of Traced's thesis — instead of transparency, it offered a strategic rationale for a values compromise. Meanwhile the product itself contains rapeseed oil and dipotassium phosphate added to achieve creaminess that oat water alone cannot deliver, a fact largely absent from the brand's clean-and-natural positioning. The stock has since lost 97% of its peak value.

01Ownership StructureRed

Oatly was founded in 1994 in Sweden by food scientist Rickard Öste at Lund University, based on his research into oat-based food processing. The company grew slowly for its first two decades before a global brand repositioning in the mid-2010s turned it into a lifestyle brand synonymous with sustainability-conscious dairy alternatives.

The investor table, as of the 2021 IPO and subsequent filings, tells a different story than the brand's public identity:

Investor
Stake
Why It Matters
China ResourcesChinese state-owned conglomerate
~45.9%
Largest shareholder. Chinese state enterprise. Received far less media scrutiny than Blackstone despite ~6x larger stake.
Blackstone GroupUS private equity
~7%
PE firm whose portfolio has included Amazon deforestation-linked investments. CEO donated to pro-Trump PAC. Directly contradicts Oatly's climate positioning.
VerlinvestBelgian family investment group
Significant minority
Consumer growth investor. Less controversial.
Celebrity investorsOprah, Jay-Z, Natalie Portman, Howard Schultz
Small stakes
High-profile but financially minor. Served primarily as brand validation during IPO marketing.

Oatly IPO'd on the Nasdaq in May 2021 at $17/share, initially trading above $22 and reaching a market cap exceeding $10 billion. The company's S-1 disclosed all investor relationships. The Blackstone stake generated significant controversy immediately upon IPO. The China Resources stake — nearly six times larger — generated far less mainstream press coverage, illustrating how media attention to ownership disclosure is itself selective and imperfect.

02Marketing Incentive AlignmentRed

Oatly's marketing is built on a values proposition: choosing Oatly is an act of climate consciousness. The brand's packaging, advertising campaigns, and founder communications have consistently framed the purchase decision as participation in environmental progress — a statement against industrial dairy and its carbon footprint.

The Blackstone investment directly and materially undermined this proposition. Blackstone's portfolio has included investments in companies linked to deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon — the single largest contributor to biodiversity loss and carbon release in the global agricultural system. Buying oat milk to reduce your environmental impact while the brand's investors hold stakes in Amazon-linked operations is not a coherent environmental position.

Oatly's public response to the Blackstone controversy is worth reading in full, because it is unusually honest about the compromise it represents. The company argued that by accepting Blackstone money and demonstrating profitability, it was showing the PE industry that sustainability-aligned businesses could generate returns — and that this demonstration effect would encourage future PE investment in climate-positive companies.

The Values Arbitrage
Oatly's defense of Blackstone is the clearest example in the Traced database of a brand explicitly acknowledging a values compromise and offering a financial-strategy rationale in its place. The argument may be strategically coherent. It is not transparency. A consumer who buys Oatly because they believe their purchase is unambiguously climate-positive has not been given the information they need to evaluate that belief.

There are no influencer-equity conflicts in the AG1 mold. The marketing misalignment here is structural — between the ownership table and the brand promise — not between paid promoters and undisclosed financial relationships.

03Revenue ModelYellow

Oatly is primarily a single retail purchase — a carton of oat milk, $5–7, no subscription. The yellow score reflects two things. First, Oatly's DTC and subscription channels, while a small share of total revenue, have grown as the brand expanded beyond grocery into direct-to-consumer formats. Second, and more substantively, the IPO context: Oatly raised capital from public markets on a values and growth narrative that has not materialized financially. The company has never reported annual net income. Revenue of ~$843M TTM is growing but accompanied by persistent net losses. The financial structure creates pressure for margin improvement that may conflict with the premium ingredient and sustainability commitments the brand markets on.

04Ingredient IntegrityYellow

Oatly Oat Milk (Barista Edition) ingredients: Oat Base (Water, Oats), Low Erucic Acid Rapeseed Oil, Dipotassium Phosphate, Calcium Carbonate, Tricalcium Phosphate, Sea Salt, Dicalcium Phosphate, Riboflavin, Vitamin A, Vitamin D2, Vitamin B12.

The core transparency gap: oat water alone is thin, watery, and lacks the creaminess that makes oat milk a satisfying dairy substitute. Rapeseed oil is added specifically to achieve the fat content and mouthfeel that makes Oatly work as a latte. The various calcium and phosphate compounds are added for fortification (to approximate the mineral profile of dairy milk) and as emulsifiers. None of this is inherently harmful. All of it is meaningfully absent from the brand's naturalistic, minimalist visual identity and "it's like milk but made for humans" positioning.

Oatly also contains added sugars — the enzymatic processing that converts oat starches to make oat milk produces naturally occurring sugars. This is not added cane sugar, but the resulting 7g of sugar per cup is higher than unsweetened almond milk (0g) or dairy milk (12g, lactose). Oatly's Original variety markets as an everyday milk alternative without prominently communicating this sugar profile.

The yellow (not red) score reflects that the ingredient list is genuinely disclosed, nothing is concealed, and the additives serve functional purposes rather than masking inferior core ingredients. The gap is between the clean-brand aesthetic and the ingredient reality — a perception gap, not a deception in the Tropicana sense.

05Scientific BackingYellow

Oatly's sustainability claims rest on a lifecycle analysis commissioned and updated by the company itself. The original study was conducted in 2013 and updated in 2016. Activist short seller Spruce Point Capital, in a July 2021 report, alleged that the 2016 update contained less favorable findings than the 2013 version and that Oatly continued to cite the more favorable original study selectively. Oatly disputed these allegations.

On the nutrition side, Oatly's fortification approach — adding calcium, vitamin D, and B12 to approximate dairy's micronutrient profile — is scientifically sound. Whether synthetic fortification provides equivalent bioavailability to naturally occurring dairy nutrients is a contested nutritional question. Oatly markets itself as a nutritional dairy equivalent without engaging with this nuance.

No clinical trials exist on Oatly specifically. The beta-glucan in oats has established cardiovascular benefits at appropriate doses; the beta-glucan content per cup of Oatly is not published prominently, and at 0.5g or less per serving is unlikely to reach the 3g/day therapeutic threshold studied in the literature.

06Label Claim AccuracyYellow

Oatly has faced legal challenges over specific claims in multiple markets. In the UK, the Advertising Standards Authority ruled against Oatly's "carbon footprint" claims in 2021, finding they were misleading due to narrow scope (excluding full supply chain emissions). In Sweden, the dairy industry successfully challenged several Oatly health comparison claims. In the US, multiple class action suits have been filed alleging that Oatly's "sustainability" claims are materially misleading to consumers who purchase based on environmental values.

The yellow score reflects an active, contested regulatory environment around the brand's core marketing claims — not a single clear FDA enforcement action, but a pattern of challenges across jurisdictions that suggests the brand pushes the boundaries of its evidentiary basis.

07Safety TransparencyYellow

No active food safety concerns. The yellow score reflects the Spruce Point Capital report's allegation — disputed by Oatly — that the company's New Jersey manufacturing plant used 55% more water per liter of oat milk produced than its Swedish plants, and that this fact was not disclosed in the IPO prospectus. Water intensity is a core sustainability metric for a brand whose environmental credentials are its primary value proposition. Whether this constitutes material non-disclosure is a legal question that has been raised in class action litigation without resolution as of this writing.

Oatly also went through three auditors in six years prior to its IPO — a pattern noted by Spruce Point that raises governance transparency questions, though auditor changes are not themselves unusual for a growing company.

Sources & Documentation
Oatly S-1 IPO Prospectus, 2021Full investor disclosure including China Resources (~45.9%) and Blackstone (~7%) stakes.
Spruce Point Capital Report, July 2021"Cream of the Crop, or Getting Creamed?" — allegations re: sustainability claims, auditor changes, NJ plant water usage.
UK Advertising Standards Authority, 2021Ruling against Oatly's carbon footprint claims as misleading due to incomplete scope.
Nasdaq: OTLY historical pricingIPO price $17, peak ~$22.50, current ~$0.55–0.65 (early 2026). ~97% decline from peak market cap.
Oatly Q3 2025 Earnings ReleaseFirst positive EBITDA quarter. Revenue ~$843M TTM. EPS still negative annually.
Multiple class action filings, 2021–2023Consolidated suits alleging material misrepresentation of sustainability claims and financial disclosure issues in IPO prospectus.